If you listen carefully, amidst public outcry over Darfur you might hear the warnings of impending catastrophe in South Sudan.

I am here in Sudan to witness what is happening on the ground; to try to understand the impact of two decades of conflict, talk with returnees from the refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia who are just beginning to rebuild their lives and find out what efforts are being made to head off a new round of war.

South Sudan has been at war with the North for all but a decade since Sudan’s independence from the British in 1956.  It is one of the least developed places on earth, with the world’s highest rate of maternal mortality.  1 out of every 50 women dies during childbirth here.

It is the rainy season in Juba, capital of South Sudan, situated on the calmer southern reaches of the White Nile.  In the past few years, the rutted dirt roads of this once backwater outpost have been crammed with new returnees and shiny white Land Cruisers plastered with the logos of UN agencies and non-governmental organizations trying to help the Sudanese taste the dividends of peace.

The war between the government in Khartoum, controlled by the National Congress Party (NCP), and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA/M) in the South killed more than 2 million people and displaced 5 million over 17 years.  The tactics employed by Khartoum would later be used in Darfur: arming local militias, in this case Baggara and ‘Arabized’ tribes; unleashing militiamen and regular army troops upon the villages of neighboring Dinka, Nuer and other ‘African’ tribes with the promise of cattle and loot; and massive human rights abuses, displacement and slavery.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005 officially ended the war and laid out a path for sharing power and oil wealth between Khartoum and the new Government of South Sudan (GOSS).  But the tenuous peace it created is in danger of collapse.  Khartoum, with a history of signing and then violating agreements, has failed to implement key parts of the CPA.  In May, fighting between the government and southern forces destroyed the town of Abyei, capital of a highly disputed, oil-rich province, and displaced more than fifty thousand people.  Military tensions are mounting and at the moment neither side seems willing to give up any ground.

The scale of displacement today in Darfur makes this attack on one town seem small.  But if war in the South starts again, experts fear it could dwarf the scale of Darfur’s tragedy and bring other marginalized regions of Sudan into the fold of conflict. That would be the worst possible scenario for the people of Sudan, especially here in the South where civilians have just started to rebuild lives broken once already by a lifetime of war.

There is tension in the air of Juba, uncertainty as to what will happen over the coming weeks.  A warm rain is beginning to pound on the metal roof of my hotel.  When desert and savannah turn to mud, vehicles become about as useful as boulders for getting around the largest country in Africa.  But I’ll need to find a way if I am going to learn what future lies in store for South Sudan.

Posted By: Michael Graham | June 05, 2008 | Comments (7)