NATO launched an air war against Serbia in 1999 to stop violent persecution -- perhaps even genocide -- of ethnic Albanians in the province of Kosovo. The result was a UN protectorate. But the province's "final status" remained up in the air. Serbia reluctantly accepted UN administration, while the Kosovar Albanians demanded independence. Earlier this month, UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari, a former president of Finland, presented his recommendation for resolving the conundrum. In not so many words, it described an independent Kosovo. And nobody was happy. Kosovar Albanians protested because independence was not explicit; two demonstrators were killed by rubber bullets in Pristina, Kosovo's capital. Meanwhile, the Serbian parliament overwhelmingly rejected Ahtisaari's plan. Approval of the plan rests with the UN Security Council, where Russia appears opposed, both because of its historical connections to Serbia and because of its concern about recognizing a regional claim to independence. What if the Security Council is paralyzed by a Russian veto? The Economist offers this prediction:

[F]ar from saving Kosovo for Serbia, it risks tipping the region back into chaos. Kosovo will declare independence anyway, and many countries (including America and Britain) will recognise it. There will be no extra protection for Serbs, and no follow-on mission to the UN. If so, the two Albanians who died on February 10th may be only the first victims of a new round of violence.