As Sudan moves closer to making significant political choices in the near future (national elections in April 2010 and a referendum on southern independence in 2011), international efforts to establish firm peace agreements in Darfur and southern Sudan have accelerated.

Dedicated to addressing matters of peace, justice, and reconciliation in Darfur, the African Union Panel on Darfur, chaired by President Thabo Mbeki, plans to release its recommendations to Sudan and the African Union at the end of September. Meanwhile, Scott Gration, President Obama's Special Envoy to Sudan, is returning to the region this week to continue facilitating bilateral negotiations between the SPLM and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) that focus on achieving a full implementation of the CPA. These discussions will concentrate on resolving two contentious issues in the CPA: the use of the census results and an agreement on technical provisions regarding the 2011 referendum. In August, Gration witnessed the initial signing of the bilateral agreement.

Gration will also travel to Darfur to visit IDP camps in an effort to assess the humanitarian situation since the NGO expulsions and to meet with Darfur women leaders to discuss programs aimed at addressing gender-based violence.

In an unprecedented visit by an American secretary of state, Hillary Clinton visited Goma in eastern Congo this week, in order to call attention to the region's ongoing conflict, which is marked by extreme brutality and widespread sexual violence. Secretary Clinton's visit comes admit increased concern for the region, as hope vanishes that the combined Rwandan-Congolese operation launched last January against rebel groups would finally bring an end to the violence.

Instead, the joint military operation provoked revenge attacks and drove more than 500,000 people from their homes. The number of internally displaced persons in the Congo now stands at two million, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). A spike in rape cases since January is being blamed on the overstretched and unpaid Congolese army, with the number of rapes doubled or tripled in the areas government soldiers are deployed.

Just days before Secretary Clinton's arrival, Congo's President Joseph Kabila and Rwandan President Paul Kagame held a rare meeting on the border. Former rivals, the two leaders agreed to plan joint economic initiatives and to revive the Joint Permanent Commission for cooperation between the two countries that has not been in operation for 21 years.

View a new gallery of photographs recently taken by Museum staff traveling in the Congo and read in World is Witness about the young survivors of rebel attacks.

In July 2004, the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum declared a “genocide emergency” in Darfur, Sudan. This week, after extensive research and an assessment of conditions on the ground, the Museum is changing its categorization of conditions in Sudan to a “genocide warning” for the entire country.

As part of its mandate, the Committee on Conscience at the Holocaust Museum is charged with alerting the national conscience and stimulating action to prevent or halt acts of genocide and related crimes against humanity. For some time now, we have evaluated situations based on three graduated categories of urgency:

Emergency: Acts of genocide or related crimes against humanity are occurring or immediately threatened.

Warning: Organized violence is underway that threatens to become genocide or related crimes against humanity.

Watch: The circumstances indicate a serious potential for the eruption of mass violence that would be within the Committee’s mandate.

Drawing distinctions between these alert levels is important, albeit difficult, because doing so helps shape the proper policy for saving lives. Under the 1948 Genocide Convention, genocide is defined as the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, religious or racial group through killing or other acts. It is a difficult crime to prove because of the high standard involved with documenting intent. It is also a very specific crime -- and should not be used as a catch-all term for all mass killing or atrocities.

Choosing how to categorize a particular situation, moreover, is not an exact science. At any given time, regrettably, there are often several wars or conflicts in the world where extreme violence against civilians is being perpetrated. Experts will often disagree where on the continuum to genocide a certain situation ought to be placed. Here at the Holocaust Museum, we pay extremely close attention to the facts on the ground in order to arrive at our own judgments.

Mindful of the power of the word genocide, we have always tried to be judicious. As the scale of the violence in Darfur became increasingly apparent in 2003 and 2004, circumstances demanded that we place the situation at our highest level of alert. The Sudanese government and allied militias conducted a series of offensives that drove civilians in the Fur, Zaghawa and Masalit ethnic groups off their lands. More than two million people were displaced from their homes, and the government obstructed the delivery of humanitarian assistance from international groups. Mortality rates skyrocketed: the World Health Organization estimated that up to 200,000 people died during this period.

While reasonable people disagreed with our assessment -- the United Nations, for instance, never labeled the events in Darfur a “genocide” -- we strongly believe that our “emergency” designation was accurate.

But now conditions in Sudan have changed. Although violence persists in Darfur, it is of a different character, with rebel groups and criminal elements responsible for violence along with the Sudanese government. The Sudanese government has halted major offensives against civilian groups. Humanitarian assistance is being provided. Mortality rates have been significantly reduced: The United Nations estimates that about 1,500 people died as a result of violence in each 2007 and 2008. New satellite assessments by the U.S. government, highlighted in “Crisis in Darfur”, the Museum’s initiative with Google Earth, clearly show the level of destruction of Darfurian villages has decreased from the height of the Sudanese government’s systematic military campaign between 2003 and 2005.

The situation across Sudan remains perilous. In Darfur, millions remain at risk in displaced persons camps because it is too dangerous to return home, and those chiefly responsible for the crimes in Darfur remain in power in Khartoum. Furthermore, we are deeply concerned about the situation in South Sudan, where hundreds of civilians have been killed in fighting over the past several months. Over the course of the next year, the country faces significant political challenges -- with national elections and a referendum on southern independence. Our concerns focus on the challenges for Sudan as a whole and the imminent risks to large segments of the civilian population. By our own criteria, we believe it is most accurate to place Darfur and the rest of Sudan in our “genocide warning” category.

We also believe that the Sudanese government must be held accountable for its past and current behavior. The International Criminal Court has sought an arrest warrant for President Omar al-Bashir and other Sudanese officials for their roles in orchestrating violence in Darfur. When this warrant was issued in March, the government responded by evicting 13 humanitarian organizations working in displaced persons camps -- another possible violation of international law. This is unacceptable: the Sudanese government must fulfill its responsibility to protect its own citizens.

We recognize that there is a significant public debate about how to describe what is happening in Darfur. We will continue to closely monitor conditions in Sudan, and we are ready to raise our alert level if necessary. Our hope is that an accurate description of the evolving situation will help elicit the appropriate policy and public response -- and lives will be saved.

--- Mike Abramowitz, Director of the Committee on Conscience

On July 22, 2009, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague delivered the final ruling on the boundary dispute over Abyei, an oil rich region claimed by both north and south Sudan. In May 2008, fighting in Abyei between the north and south resulted in the displacement of 50,000 people and destroyed the town. Today's ruling by the Court determined that several areas -- including the Heglig oilfield -- were not part of Abyei. Inhabitants of areas that are within the newly established borders have the right to vote on a referendum in 2011 on whether they want to be permanently a part of north or south Sudan. Both Sudanese parties have agreed to abide by the Court's decision.

Learn more about the history of Abyei and South Sudan.

Explore World is Witness and read about the 2008 attack on Abyei.

Listen to our podcast interview with Sudan expert Roger Winter, who was in Abyei shortly after it was destroyed.

On May 14th, the House introduced H.R. 2410, the Foreign Relations Authorization Act for Fiscal Years 2010-2011, which includes language requiring reports on the U.S. capacity to prevent genocide and mass atrocities. Section 1002 of the Bill specifically invokes the Genocide Prevention Task Force report, “The December 2008 Report of the Genocide Prevention Task Force, co-chaired by former Secretary of State Madeline Albright and former Secretary of Defense William Cohen offers a valuable blueprint for strengthening United States capacities to help prevent genocide and mass atrocities,” and calls for a feasibility assessment of implementing some key report recommendations and recommends to further strengthen U.S. capacity to prevent genocide and mass atrocities. In addition to the inclusion of language on atrocity prevention rather than response, this is significant because it also paves the way for the Senate to support key provisions from the House State Authorization Bill.

Policy Language:

SEC. 1002. REPORT ON UNITED STATES CAPACITIES TO PREVENT GENOCIDE AND MASS ATROCITIES.

(a) FINDINGS.—Congress finds the following:
(1) The lack of an effective government-wide strategy and adequate capacities for preventing genocide and mass atrocities against civilians undermines the ability of the United States to contribute to the maintenance of global peace and security and protect vital United States interests.
(2) The December 2008 Report of the Genocide Prevention Task Force, co-chaired by former Secretary of State Madeline Albright and former Secretary of Defense William Cohen offers a valuable blueprint for strengthening United States capacities to help prevent genocide and mass atrocities.
(3) Specific training and staffing will enhance the diplomatic capacities of the Department of State to help prevent and respond to threats of genocide and mass atrocities.

(b) REPORT.—
(1) REPORT REQUIRED.—Not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of State shall submit to the appropriate congressional committees a report outlining specific plans for the development of a government-wide strategy and the strengthening of United States civilian capacities for preventing genocide and mass atrocities against civilians.

(2) CONTENT.—The report required under paragraph (1) shall include the following:
(A) An evaluation of current mechanisms for government-wide early warning, information-sharing, contingency planning, and coordination of effort to prevent and respond to situations of genocide, mass atrocities, and other mass violence.
(B) An assessment of current capacities within the Department of State, including specific staffing and training, for early warning, preventive diplomacy, and crisis response to help avert genocide and mass atrocities.
(C) An evaluation of United States foreign assistance programs and mechanisms directed toward the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities, including costs, challenges to implementation, and successes of such programs and mechanisms.
(D) An assessment of the feasibility, effectiveness, and potential costs of implementing key recommendations made by the Genocide Prevention Task Force, including the establishment of an Atrocities Prevention Committee within the National Security Council and increased annual and contingency funding for the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities.
(E) Recommendations to further strengthen United States capacities to help prevent genocide, mass atrocities, and other mass violence, including enhanced early warning mechanisms, strengthened diplomatic capacities of the Department of State, and improved use of United States foreign assistance.

John Heffernan discusses his recent trip to the Congo and the importance of genocide prevention in an editorial piece published on May 22 in the Huffington Post:

Last week, the United Nations Security Council traveled to Ethiopia, Rwanda, Congo and Liberia to discuss Africa's hotspots -- areas that are threatened by genocide and mass atrocities. In a report on preventing genocide, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former Secretary of Defense William Cohen make the case for why preventing and responding to genocide and mass atrocities is in the moral and strategic interests of the United States. The 140 page report lays out 34 recommendations to point out a choice between doing nothing and embarking on large-scale military interventions. A recent trip I took to the Great Lakes region of Africa dramatically illustrated why this "blueprint" should be taken seriously, and why U.S. leadership is so important in this area.

In the dirt courtyard outside the United Nations-funded hospital wing, in the war-affected border city of Goma in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, I met Jean Paul, his tiny legs barely holding up his small torso. Inside the white stucco building, other children from the nearby displacement camp were not so lucky as they clung for life, skin hanging off their bones. Jean Paul, who had the most endearing brown eyes, managed to muster enough energy to lift his little hand to give me the internationally recognized high five. Although he appeared to be on the road to recovery, this child of war, who looked to be no more than two years old, held up five fingers when I asked him his age. Jean Paul, a vivid reminder of the consequences of the horrific human toll exacted by mass atrocities and genocide inflicted by man, may also be a reminder of humanity's capacity to prevent such episodes; episodes in which tens of millions have lost their lives over the last century.

I have seen it before in Darfur, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Kosovo and most recently Rwanda and Congo, the direct assault on human values through systematic massacres, forced displacements, mass rapes and the plundering and destruction of homes, wells, crops, livestock and assets meant to sustain life. I know how these horrific acts destroy lives and livelihoods. But these most heinous crimes, genocide and mass atrocities, also threaten U.S. national interests, and we must be better prepared to prevent them.

In Rwanda today significant problems persist, but with assistance from the U.S. and other international donors, the country has worked hard to recover from one of the most brutal massacres of modern times. While vigilance is required to prevent repetition of the past violence in Rwanda, neighboring Congo, a huge country where the Rwandan genocide sparked successive wars involving 7 neighboring countries and resulting in an estimated 5.4 million deaths in the last ten years, needs worldwide attention to help end the reoccurring violence.

Evidence of the spillover effects of the Rwanda genocide were nowhere more apparent than in the displaced persons camps just outside of Goma in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo where Jean Paul lives - camps that the U.S. and other international donors have been supporting since 1994. While aid to Rwanda and Congo supports many important reconciliation and emergency relief projects, early preventive action would surely have been less expensive and could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

There's a pattern. We know from past examples that genocide and mass atrocities in one country fuel threats in other weak and corrupt states, and can prompt the type of long term conflicts that know no boundaries. In Rwanda, with refugee flows spreading to Congo and beyond, the international community, including the U.S. was called on to absorb and assist displaced people, provide support for a massive and ongoing humanitarian relief effort. The longer we wait the more exorbitant the price tag. In Bosnia alone, the U.S. invested an estimated $15 billion to support peacekeeping forces in the years since we belatedly intervened to stop the atrocities.

What's needed in these cases is early, high-level attention, facilitated by standing institutional mechanisms within our own government, and then strong international partnerships that can form the basis for effective and coordinated action. We need a comprehensive prevention approach that begins with early warning mechanisms, and involves early action to address high-risk situations, timely diplomatic responses to emerging crises, and greater preparedness to employ military options when those are required.

The genocide prevention report clearly lays out a way forward, starting with the recommendation to create an interagency Atrocity Prevention Committee to analyze threats of genocide and mass atrocities and that warning of these threatened acts be an automatic trigger of policy review. Moreover, the report calls of an investment of $250 million - less than a dollar for every American each year -- in new funds for crisis prevention and response.

We know that the long-lasting consequences of genocide and mass atrocities are enormous. Reconciliation after the fact is possible and essential, but if we shift our focus to prevention rather than response, lives and livelihoods will be saved and threats to our national interest will be mitigated. But, as the Genocide Task Force report emphasizes, for it to work, leadership is the indispensable ingredient. Leadership from the president, Congress, and the American people --, nothing is more central to preventing genocide and mass atrocities. Time is not on the side of Jean Paul. We owe it to him and the millions like him, to make genocide prevention a priority, now.