Addressing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, Dennis Blair, the Director of National Intelligence, emphasized -- above all other parallel risks -- the potential for mass killing or genocide in South Sudan. His analysis came as part of the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Blair discussed the definition, triggers, strategies, and recent cases of mass killing:

The mass killing of civilians -- defined as the deliberate killing of at least 1,000 unarmed civilians of a particular political identity by state or state-sponsored actors in a single event or over a sustained period -- is a persistent feature of the global landscape. Within the past three years, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Sudan all suffered mass killing episodes through violence, starvation, or deaths in prison camps. Sri Lanka may also have experienced a mass killing last spring: roughly 7,000 civilians were killed during Colombo's military victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), according to UN estimates.

The risk for mass killing is driven by the presence of ongoing internal conflict or regime crises, combined with relatively poor socioeconomic conditions, international isolation, recent protest activity, discriminatory policies, or frequent leadership turnover. In such contexts, mass killings are typically deliberate strategies by new or threatened elites to assert state or rebel authority, to clear territory of insurgents, or to deter populations from supporting rebel or antigovernment movements.

Looking ahead over the next five years, a number of countries in Africa and Asia are at significant risk for a new outbreak of mass killing. All of the countries at significant risk have or are at high risk for experiencing internal conflicts or regime crises and exhibit one or more of the additional factors for mass killing. Among these countries, a new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in Southern Sudan.

Blair's statement fulfilled a recommendation presented in the final report of the Genocide Prevention Task Force, which the Museum convened with the U.S. Institute of Peace and The American Academy of Diplomacy. The report offered a blueprint for improving U.S. government response to threats of genocide and mass atrocities and included the following recommendation: "The director of national intelligence should initiate the preparation of a National Intelligence Estimate on worldwide risk of genocide and mass atrocities."

Blair's focus on the risk for mass killing or genocide in southern Sudan reflects growing international concern for Sudan as the nation approaches presidential elections in April and the 2011 referendum for southern independence.

Blair also emphasized to the Senate Committee the principal challenges to stability in the Balkans and highlighted several worrying signs in Bosnia:

I remain concerned about Bosnia's future stability. While neither widespread violence nor a formal break-up of the state appears imminent, ethnic agendas still dominate the political process and reforms have stalled because of wrangling among the three main ethnic groups. The sides failed to agree on legal changes proposed jointly by the EU and the US at the end of 2009, undercutting efforts to strengthen the central government so that it is capable of taking the country into NATO and the EU. Bosnian Serb leaders seek to reverse some reforms, warn of legal challenges to the authority of the international community, and assert their right to eventually hold a referendum on secession, all of which is contributing to growing interethnic tensions. This dynamic appears likely to continue, as Bosnia's leaders will harden their positions to appeal to their nationalist constituents ahead of elections this fall.

Appeals judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) have reversed a decision of the Pre-Trial Chamber of the ICC not to include genocide in the charges against Sudanese President Bashir. The Pre-Trial Chamber will have to reconsider anew the charges, which include three counts of genocide.

In March 2009, when the ICC announced its historic decision to issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir for his leadership role in orchestrating the conflict in Darfur, the Pre-Trial Chamber issued an indictment with charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes, but did not accept the prosecution's charge of genocide. The pre-trial judges believed that the prosecution had not provided enough evidence to support the genocide charge.

The prosecution subsequently appealed the decision to the Court's Appeals Chamber. Prosecutors argued that the time to provide such evidence was during the main trial and not when they were simply seeking to bring charges. In reversing the decision, the Appeals Chamber explained that the standard of evidence used by the Pre-Trial Chamber to reject the charge of genocide was "higher and more demanding than what is required" and that it was "materially affected by an error of law."

Prosecutors will now have to re-present the case for charging President Bashir with genocide.

In a little over five months, on June 28, 2010, Burundi will vote in presidential elections that will test the strength and endurance of the nation's fledgling peace process. Unlike the 2005 election, this one will be a direct election by all voters, not by parliament. The elections come as a significant marker for this country that -- once known for violence -- now rarely reaches the headlines.

The nation's peace process drew to a quiet close in 2009, with the last rebel movement, Palipehutu-FNL, demobilized and converted to a political party simply called FNL. Without fanfare, South Africa concluded its eight year peacekeeping mission to Burundi and brought home the last of its troops just before the New Year. South Africa explained that their presence -- maintained in Burundi after the UN peacekeeping mission departed in 2006 -- had "assisted in laying the foundation for political dialogue, restored a semblance of peace, instilled hope and ushered a new beginning to the people of Burundi to build their country."

Despite these advances, there are worrying signs that need to be watched carefully. The upcoming election will severely test a fragile peace in Burundi. A leadership contest occurring within the ranks of FNL could spark new violence, as could the rearming of militias, a dangerous development made possible by the existence of large caches of illegal weapons and well-organized political youth wings, populated with former combatants who failed to be reintegrated in the recently completed DDR (disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration) process.

In a recent essay on the political situation in Burundi as it prepares for the 2010 elections, a senior researcher at the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies explained that because of these warning signs, "Burundi is a classroom example of a country at potential risk for election-related violence... Burundi's upcoming election is not only a test for the Barundi, but also for those organisations and structures put in place to deal with the prevention of conflict, especially election-related conflict. This issue has received more attention after experiences of violence triggered by elections in numerous African countries in the recent past. In the case of Burundi, it is impossible to argue that there were no warning signs."

On December 10, the Museum hosted a special program with U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN Susan Rice. Michael Abramowitz, Director of the Museum’s Committee on Conscience, interviewed Ambassador Rice, discussing her work at the UN and her experiences working on issues of genocide and mass atrocities.

Here are some highlights from the evening:



Watch the full video; read more about the important topics, including United States policy towards Sudan, discussed at the event; and view photos from Ambassador Rice's visit to From Memory to Action: Meeting the Challenge of Genocide.

On Februrary 23, 2009, Robert Csorba and his four-year-old son Robert, Jr. were shot dead as they ran from their burning home that had been firebombed in Tatárszentgyörgy, Hungary. The attack became the latest in a series that involved Molotov cocktails to set ablaze houses that belonged to Romani families. According to Human Rights First, these attacks "reveal a widespread pattern of violence that is often directed both at causing immediate harm to Roma -- without distinction between adults, the elderly, and small children -- and physically eradicating the presence of Roma in towns and cities in several European countries."

For centuries, Europeans stigmatized the Roma, sometimes referred to as gypsies, as social outcasts and scapegoats. When World War II broke out in 1939, the Nazi regime intensified its persecution of the Roma, transporting them to ghettos and concentration camps across Europe. While it is not known precisely how many Roma were killed in the Holocaust, scholars believe that the Nazis killed up to 220,000 Roma, which was around one-quarter of the entire population of European Roma.

Today, the Roma make up perhaps the largest minority group in Europe. While they do not face the existential threat they once did during the Holocaust, the Roma continue to suffer from violent hate crimes and state discrimination, including police abuse, segregation in housing and education, and cases of coercive sterilization of Romani women in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

In an alarming series of actions in 2007 and 2008, Italy's national government and municipal authorities pursued dedicated policies aimed at driving out their Roma population. Claiming a security interest, emergency decrees required the registration of all Roma in major Italian cities, and a census was used as an excuse to fingerprint and photograph Romani people, including children. Encouraged by these official acts, mobs formed that attacked Roma residents and burned Roma settlements to the ground.

Despite being party to agreements that forbid these actions, many countries in Europe have failed -- whether through indifference or intentional disregard -- to protect the Roma community. Responding to calls from human rights activists to do more to end violence and discrimination against the Roma, members of the European Commission and the European Parliament have issued repeated criticisms. These have, however, proven largely ineffective against the entrenched prejudices that have kept the Roma on the fringes of European society.

For more information, please visit the Open Society Institute, the European Roma Rights Centre, or listen to the Voices on Genocide Prevention podcast interview with Rob Kushen, Managing Director of the European Roma Rights Centre.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has suffered two wars since 1996. At its height, the second war involved the armies from seven African nations and multiple rebel groups. According to the International Rescue Committee, an estimated 5.4 million people died between 1998 and 2008, most from preventable diseases as a result of the collapse of infrastructure, lack of food security, displacement, and destroyed health-care systems. The formal conclusion of the war in 2003 did not bring an end to conflict in the region.

The dense jungles of eastern Congo remain home to numerous rebel organizations, which have complex histories and agendas. Responsible for perpetrating mass atrocities against civilians, including massacres, rapes, and abductions, three rebel groups stand out as having caused the greatest destruction and suffering in recent years. These are the FDLR, CNDP, and LRA. At times, each organization has received government support from different countries in the region, and many of the rebels have profited generously from the continued exploitation of the DRC’s abundant natural resources. All prey on the civilian population.

Spread thinly across northeastern Congo, the largest UN peacekeeping force in the world (MONUC) is largely unable to halt attacks. The Congolese Armed Forces, themselves responsible for committing widespread atrocities in 2009, is increasingly an impediment to achieving peace and security in the region.

We have recently published background summaries for the FDLR, CNDP, and LRA. We hope they will help extend an understanding of what can appear to be, at first glance, a hopelessly complicated situation. Please follow the links to learn more.

The year 2009 was the most violent South Sudan has seen since the signing of the 2005 peace agreement, with the death rate higher than in Darfur. In clashes far more serious than simple cattle raids, villages -- rather than cattle camps -- have been attacked and women and children targeted. "Violence is surging," reports Medecins Sans Frontieres. "Plunging people from one disaster to the next." UN officials have noticed an unusual "ease and availability of ammunition" in the region, which suggests an influx of weapons, possibly from northern Sudanese officials interested in breeding chaos in the south.

"This is madness," said Diing Akol Ding, a county commissioner near Duk Padiet, one of the sites of recent violence. Showing a photograph of a dozen people wrapped in blankets, buried in a ditch, he tells The New York Times, "Mass graves? We've never had mass graves."

In Darfur, the situation remains unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous. In December, five peacekeepers from Rwanda, members of UNAMID, the UN force in Darfur, were killed in separate incidents by unidentified gunmen. The UN's latest report on UNAMID documented repeated cases of government officials harassing and limiting movements of the international peacekeepers in violation of the Status of Forces Agreement with the government of Sudan.

International organizations are beginning to ring alarm bells for the entirety of Sudan as the nation's April elections approach. In a new report, "Sudan: Preventing Implosion", the International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that "Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup." It insists that without cooperation to support the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and additional negotiations to settle conflict in Darfur, a "return to North-South war and escalation of conflict in Darfur are likely."

The report further explains that the National Congress Party (NCP) -- the controlling party in Khartoum -- and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the South want elections for the wrong reasons. The NCP hopes to regain legitimacy for President Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The SPLM hopes that elections will help South Sudan focus on its self-determination referendum in 2011. According to the ICG, "[The SPLM] threatens to declare unilateral independence if pushed to accept a referendum postponement."

The dominating interests of the NCP and SPLM threaten to squeeze out opposition parties in both the north and south, as well as disenfranchise millions of citizens who could not register to vote. ICG reports that at least two million Darfur IDPs who have been unable to return home may be kept from the political process, while occupiers of their lands elect local representatives.

While a return to war is not inevitable in Sudan, international actors as well as key players across Sudan must redouble their efforts to guarantee the people of Sudan a secure and politically stable future.

Last night in a special program at the Museum, Ambassador Susan Rice, the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, made clear that the U.S. government has adopted benchmarks by which it will measure whether Sudan is making progress in meeting humanitarian and other obligations -- and they will be assessed quarterly. There has been some ambiguity about whether such benchmarks existed. The benchmarks are very specific and have been agreed on by "the highest officials, including the President of the United States, and by us at the principals level," Rice said. The status quo in Sudan, Rice insisted, was inherently unacceptable. Asked whether there had been consequences for the perpetrators in Darfur, Rice replied, "Not enough."

Marking UN Human Rights Day, the discussion at the Museum came at a meaningful time. Earlier in the day, during his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech, President Obama had spoken about the realities of achieving peace and vowed, "When there is genocide in Darfur, systematic rape in Congo or repression in Burma -- there must be consequences." This week also marked the adoption of the 1948 Genocide Convention, and the one-year anniversary of the Genocide Prevention Task Force, which the Museum convened with the U.S. Institute of Peace and The American Academy of Diplomacy.

The final report of the Task Force offered a blueprint for improving U.S. government response to threats of genocide and mass atrocities. Reflecting about her experiences on President Clinton's National Security Council in April 1994, as genocide swept Rwanda and Clinton's administration failed to act, Susan Rice spoke of the lessons she'd learned for improving government response:

I've often reflected that our greatest failure in the U.S. government -- and I think, frankly more broadly -- was not that we ever took a decision not to act. It was that we never confronted the question... Now that I am at the principals table, as opposed to a junior staffer, I think it's my responsibility and that of my colleagues and those in leadership responsibilities and in Congress and the public and the media to demand answers to those questions and not allow them to be unasked or unanswered.

Visiting the Museum's new interactive installation From Memory to Action: Meeting the Challenge of Genocide before the event, Ambassador Rice wrote her pledge to help meet the challenge of genocide: "Speak the truth." And doing so loudly and emphatically, especially when it most matters.

The following post appeared on "Enough Said", the blog of the Enough Project. It is written by Bridget Conley-Zilkic, the Director of Research and Projects at the Museum's Committee on Conscience.

Unlike an earthquake, tidal wave, or volcano, genocide is entirely manmade. Genocide can be prevented. And that means you can help prevent genocide and what you do matters.

Just one year ago, on December 8, 2008, a task force convened by the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, the U.S. Institute of Peace, and the American Academy of Diplomacy, and led by former Secretary of State Madeline Albright and former Secretary of Defense William Cohen, released a report detailing how the United States government could better prepare itself to prevent genocide and mass atrocities. Preventing Genocide: A Blueprint for U.S. Policy Makers made the case that not only could the United States work more effectively to prevent genocide, but that doing so was in both its moral and strategic interests.

The landmark report confirms that public engagement will make a critical difference. It states: "The American people should build a permanent constituency for the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities. (...) We urge the American people to continue to support more assertive government action in response to genocide and mass atrocities." You can help build that constituency and make a difference by visiting www.ipledge2protect.org.

This week, Genocide Intervention Network is hosting The National Canvass to Prevent Genocide in cooperation with the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum. People all across the country will be talking to neighbors, organizing community events, and doing everything they can to raise the public awareness and the support we'll need to build the movement to prevent genocide. Already, more than 30,000 people have pledged through the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum's new interactive installation to meet the challenge of genocide.

We are asking you to join the movement and make your pledge. It's as simple as adding your name.

To lead or join a canvass in your area, click here.

We often hear about genocide in Rwanda and Bosnia, but how much do you know about the acts of genocide that occurred in Guatemala? Thanks to recently released documents, which reveal new details about government-perpetrated atrocities against Mayan communities in the 1980s, we now have an opportunity to learn more.

Guatemala's 36-year civil war claimed over 200,000 lives. Between 1981 and 1983, the violence intensified, when the Guatemalan army carried out a counterinsurgency campaign deliberately aimed at massacring thousands of Mayan civilians. A UN-sponsored truth commission, the Historical Clarification Commission, created after the war ended in 1996, documented horrifying atrocities, which included murder, mutilation, rape, and torture. The Commission held the Guatemalan state responsible for acts of genocide against Mayan communities.

For the first time, Guatemalan military documents that detail the precise nature and intent of these officially-sanctioned massacres have become publicly available through the National Security Archive, an independent non-governmental research institute and library. Having obtained the documents from military intelligence sources in Guatemala, the National Security Archive presented them in testimony before the National Court of Spain, which is investigating the Guatemala genocide case.

According to the National Security Archive, these documents "contain explicit references to the killing of unarmed men, women, and children, the burning of homes, destruction of crops, slaughter of animals and indiscriminate aerial bombing of refugees trying to escape the violence."